Ulla Münch
(Landschaftsverband Rheinland, Rheinisches Amt für Bodendenkmalpflege, Bonn, Germany)
For many years archaeological predictive modells have been international used, their importance arise for the state service of cultural resource management in Germany. Especially with great digging projects it has shown that the previous knowledge about archaeological remains hidden in the ground is incomplete and makes the planning for archaeological measures more difficult. Predictive modells deliver information about the archaeological potential of an area and represents a significant planning tool for practical cultural recource management.
In the last years the validity of these maps for the Land Brandenburg areas (Germany) were offered as evidence inside the research project „Archäoprognose Brandenburg“. The ecological determinism based modells provide for these areas precise maps, which allows different interpretations in different scales.
Based on the same statistical method like in Brandenburg the first predicitve modells for the Rhineland (Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany) are calculated. The direct comparison is possible for modells of different parts of the landscape with similar size and identical scales. These are calculated like the Brandenburg modells with logistic regression. The areas with different ecological features deliver as expected different results.That is to say the factors of influence are different also in comparable archaeological cultures.
To be discussed is the interpretation and benefit of archaeological predictive modells, which differences reveals in the different regions and which different scales are most suitable for the formulations of questions. The „analog“ method to identify the archaeological potential in the state service for heritage management will be described in comparison to the the archaeological predictive modells.
Keywords: Predictive modelling, GIS, multivariate statistic, cultural resource management